Copper bounces on tight China supply; oil falls to its lowest since August and the rupee hits a six-month high
Base metals steadied on Monday after last week's sell-off. LME copper rose about 0.5% as stocks in China fell to their lowest in almost three years, aluminium gained about 1% on tight nearby supply and nickel added about 0.6%, while zinc and lead slipped. In India, copper scrap rates firmed about 0.6% and stainless steel scrap edged up, while ferrous scrap stayed flat. Brent crude fell about 6% on hopes of a US-Iran deal, helping the rupee touch its strongest level in six months.
Copper recovers after its worst week since March
LME copper rose about 0.5% on Monday after falling about 2.7% last week, and Shanghai copper gained about 0.5%. Copper stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses fell more than 24% last week to 33,848 tonnes, the lowest in almost three years and less than one day of Chinese use, and the premium paid for imported copper in China hit a record. Smelters there are struggling to find concentrate and scrap, and a crackdown on illegal mining in Congo threatens more supply losses. LME copper stocks rose to about 3,17,400 tonnes, and US Comex stocks are more than double a year ago.
For your business: Bright and mixed copper scrap rates in India firmed about 0.6% in the latest session. Strong Chinese demand for scrap should keep bids supported, but the bounce is fragile while US tariff and tech-demand hopes fade.
Aluminium gains about 1% as nearby metal stays tight
LME aluminium rose about 1% on Monday and is about 3% above its levels of a month ago. Spot metal on the LME is trading at a wide premium to later dates because available stocks are thin, at about 2,27,000 tonnes, while new supply is slow to arrive. Output from Gulf smelters hit by this year's conflict is still recovering, while China's smelters are running close to full capacity.
For your business: Aluminium ingot-grade and utensil scrap rates in India were steady in the latest session. Tight global supply supports sellers, but local buying has not picked up yet.
Nickel holds gains on Indonesia; zinc and lead ease
Nickel rose about 0.6% and is up about 6% since early November on talk that Indonesia, the biggest producer, may cut mining quotas for 2027 and that its smelters may trim output. Zinc slipped about 0.1% and lead about 0.2%, while tin was flat but remains about 14% below its late-September levels.
For your business: Stainless steel 304 scrap in India edged up about 0.5% and 202 about 0.2%, helped by firmer nickel. Zinc, brass and lead scrap rates were unchanged in the latest session.
Rupee touches a six-month high
The rupee touched 93.70 per dollar on Monday, its strongest level in six months, and the reference rate was about ₹93.93 per dollar. It has recovered more than 3% from its record low near 96.90. Cheaper oil cut dollar demand from importers, and foreign investors bought more than 4 billion dollars of Indian shares last week. Dealers expect the RBI to buy dollars to rebuild its reserves, which could slow the rupee's rise.
For your business: A stronger rupee makes imported metal and scrap cheaper in rupee terms, which can limit gains in local non-ferrous rates even when LME prices rise.
Brent falls to its lowest level since late August
Brent crude fell almost 6% on Monday and was near $92 a barrel on Tuesday, its lowest since late August, after a drop of about 13% last week. Hopes for a US-Iran deal and a recovery in Gulf crude exports drove the fall. However, tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz were reported again, so shipping risks remain.
For your business: Lower oil should ease fuel, power and freight costs for recyclers over time. High-risk shipping routes still keep freight for imported scrap expensive.
Ferrous scrap flat in Delhi; demand stays weak
HMS 1 & 2, CR/HR coil and cast iron scrap rates were unchanged in Delhi in the latest session. A wider Indian ferrous scrap index slipped on subdued steel demand, while ship-breaking scrap at Alang firmed on tight supply.
For your business: Melting scrap sellers should expect slow and steady buying. Any pick-up in construction demand after the festive season would be the first sign of firmer rates.
What to watch next
- US October inflation data due today and its effect on the dollar and Fed rate expectations
- India's October retail inflation data on Thursday, 12 November
- Copper stocks in China and the record import premium
- Indonesia's 2027 nickel mining quotas
- US-Iran talks and tanker safety in the Strait of Hormuz
Prices now
LME prices are shown with a 2-day delay. Live LME and India rates are free for registered members.
This update is general market information, not investment or trading advice. Prices are indicative.
